Given that China has lifted the relevant ban on Australian timber, cotton, copper, coal and other industries, especially Australia has exported $850 million worth of coal to China in April, China-Australia trade has made good stage progress.

China is likely to lift its ban on Australian grains in July after Australia suspended its WTO trade case. As for the approximate time of China’s lifting of the wine ban, there are two possibilities, one is that after the Australian Prime Minister Albanese announced his visit to China or during his visit to China, China will lift the ban on Australian wine as a “political gift” to Albanese. The other possibility is relatively small, that is, China receives information from the WTO that China may lose the wine arbitration case, then China voluntarily revokes the relevant ban on Australian wine.

Then there’s the possible Albanese visit to China. For the PM, political and economic benefits should be important considerations in deciding his visit to China.

Politically, this year marks the 50th anniversary of former Australian Prime Minister Whitlam’s visit to China, which is of great significance to Albanese and the Labor government.

Apart from the US, no other state visit is more important than China. At the trade level, given the current poor global economic and trade environment, a Labor government will have to “bow” to trade realities. On the one hand, although Australia’s free trade agreement with the UK has come into force, the UK’s trade accounts for only 2 to 3 percent of Australia’s total exports, making trade with the UK insignificant in the overall scale of trade.

Moreover, Australia has made considerable concessions in agriculture, shrinking its profit margins. On the other hand, trade negotiations between Australia and the European Union have stalled due to differences in “geographical indications”, and the two sides are likely to be unable to sign a “free trade agreement” this year.

Australia will not compromise China’s participation in the CPTPP because of trade sanctions.

Making concessions on China’s participation in the CPTPP in exchange for the removal of all trade sanctions would set a bad precedent. We can discuss joining the CPTPP with China, but it is only fair that we do so after China has fully lifted its sanctions against Australia.

Australia will not actively push for Taiwan to join the CPTPP. At the political level, the administration knows that the Taiwan issue is a red line that the Chinese government cannot cross, and we will not use this low-level strategy to escalate tensions with China. Moreover, tariffs between Australia and Taiwan are already very low, and Taiwan’s participation in the CPTPP is not very attractive to Australian exports.

Nor will Australia use Considerations on China’s “developing country status” as a bargaining tool.

“Developing country status” is not up to the US government alone, and even if the US has a certain degree of stranglehold on China, it does not mean that China cannot maintain this status.

For Australia, it is difficult to define whether China is a developed country or a developing country. On the one hand, China has the most developed and modern cities in the world economy, and on the other hand, China’s rural areas are far from reaching the level of rural areas in developed countries. We will not actively provoke China on this matter, even if in the future, it is necessary to speak out under pressure from the United States, and it will be handled very quietly. Avoid “pointlessly” provoking China.